Case Studies

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Political Risk Analysis, Taiwan


The Task

A subsidiary of a large multinational was seeking to make substantial investments for in Taiwan and required an independent opinion on the political situation, including an evaluation of political and security risks, with particular regard to:

The likelihood of regulatory changes following the possible election of another party
The likelihood of a potential deterioration of relations with mainland China, including the possibility of armed conflict.

The Work

Direct consultation with client, research and evaluation of risks, preparation of a report (summary of risks and justification of risk level):

Risk of significant policy and regulatory change was ranked as very low. Policy was deemed to remain stable to foreign investors in general, as was the continuation and honouring of commitments on projects approved by the previous administration.
Risk of deterioration of relation with China was ranked as high in likelihood, but low in significance. The overall trend suggested a continuing improvement of relations at a slow pace with intermittent short-lived disputes. Risk of conflict was ranked as very low.

The Outcome

The client was very satisfied with the report, and used it to overcome objections against the planned investment. The accuracy of the report has not been put into doubt by any subsequent events.



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